Automark

The twin earthquakes that struck southern Japan were having ripple effects far beyond the disaster zone, forcing Toyota to suspend production at most of its factories across the country, and affecting other manufacturers as well.

The quake damaged Honda’s motorcycle plant in Kumamoto, the largest city affected by the two quakes that hit late Thursday and early Saturday, killing at least 42 people. Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock index tumbled more than 3 percent Monday in part on worries over quake repercussions as well as a spike in the yen and a drop in oil prices.

But the economic impact is nowhere near as large as the havoc wreaked by the 2011 quake and tsunami disasters, which slammed supply chains so badly that Japanese automakers’ production was halted even in the U.S. They learned the hard way about their vulnerability to such interruptions, especially from second- and third-tier suppliers, and have worked to create contingency plans.

Disasters tend to hobble Japan’s mighty manufacturers because they are supported by small machine shops that provide components to bigger suppliers, which in turn supply bigger players.

“That kind of lesson has been learned,” said Nissan Motor Co. spokesman Dion Corbett. “We now have maps that show where exactly the suppliers are.”

Nissan’s two plants in Kyushu were temporarily shut down after the quakes for checkups. The checks found damage was minor, allowing the plants to be resume operations on Monday, Corbett said.

Some of the worst-affected areas are deep in the mountains surrounding Mount Aso, Japan’s largest active volcano, an area renowned for dairy farming. But one of the hardest-hit cities was Mashiki, a center for semiconductor fabrication and other manufacturing.

Sony Corp. said its sensor and device plant in Kumamoto was closed. Although the building’s structure was intact and no employees were injured, the precise nature of the production processes requires that delicately calibrated equipment must be checked carefully.

“The impact to near-term economic activity looks inevitable, while the comprehensive picture is difficult to gauge now, particularly due to the continued aftershocks,” Masamichi Adachi of J.P. Morgan said in a commentary.

Overall, the risk to the outlook for growth is “to the downside,” he said.

In trading Monday, Toyota’s shares lost 4.8 percent, Nissan lost 2.8 percent and Sony shed 6.8 percent.

Renesas Electronics Corp.’s computer chip plant in Kumamoto city was also shuttered, spokeswoman Makie Uehara said. It was unclear when production would resume. Gases that can be dangerous are used to maintain antiseptic conditions for chip production, and so safety had to be confirmed before other damage could be checked.

Toyota Motor Corp., the most heavily affected of the big car makers, has stopped production not only at a factory in Kyushu but at 15 others in Japan through Friday. Output will resume depending on the availability of parts.

Toyota’s Japan output will drop by 50,000 vehicles in April, or about 7 percent of Japan production, according to a report on the quake’s effects on automakers by SMBC Nikko. Toyota declined to comment on that estimate.

Critically affected parts include door frames, door hinges and cast-aluminum engine parts, said Toyota spokesman Itsuki Kurosu. The maker of the Camry sedan, Prius hybrid and Lexus luxury models was working hard to get substitute parts, he said.

Honda Motor Corp.’s motorcycle plant was severely damaged. Due to repeated aftershocks, it was unsafe even to go inside to carefully inspect the damage, said company spokesman Teruhiko Tatebe. Production has been stopped until at least Friday.

So far, production at Honda’s auto plants has not been affected, Tatebe said. The company did not rule out future supply problems.

A few Chinese brands gain international acclaim among other industry leaders from around the globe. These companies have
stepped out of the dark ages of small engined motorcycles and are on a level playing field in both technological advancements
and innovation

First off, I’d like to categorically state that nobody on our staff writers’ team is psychic, at least as far as we know. The following piece is pure speculation and hope for what lies ahead for the industry as a whole. While the future is difficult to predict accurately without advanced computer modelling and trend observation we can use the progress of the motorcycle industry in general to make an educated guess as to what might be in store for us. The next few decades look to be very exciting for anybody involved in the scene and if any of these predictions are on the mark then it will be a great thing to be part of progress that gets us there whether by playing a small part or a large one.
10 years from now – 2026
A decade has passed since you would have read this article and the first noticeable difference is in customer services; factory agents now command advanced English skills and are on the ball and organised, Chinese company websites have been overhauled and brought into a functional, professional state, long gone are the days of miscommunication with contacts possessing the language skills of a three year old and website interfaces are now at an international industry standard.
The powers-that-be have brought the hammer down on rouge Chinese factories scamming foreign customers or producing the lowest quality bikes. Instead, the first tier companies have moved into the high-end leisure market competing with the Japanese and European marques both on and off the track. Hints of carbon fibre and space grade aluminium are making their way onto top of the line models. Quality control has stepped up its game and is only allowing the most well build bikes onto the market.
The second and third tier companies produce for the agrarian sector both home and abroad and even they are incorporating up to date fuel management systems and reliable tech and safety features like so many of the bikes from the 2010’s featured.
20 years from now -2036
A few Chinese brands gain international acclaim among other industry leaders from around the globe. These companies have stepped out of the dark ages of small engined motorcycles and are on a level playing field in both technological advancements and innovation. They do battle on the track and leisure riders take pride in owning a Chinese machine from one of the greats. The bikes are pushing forward in prowess; Dakar, Isle of Man, world circuits and the open road, they each claim their places in history.
Production standards for these big marques are equal to any other and the quality of the smaller companies building regular commuter and farmer bikes levels out and in doing so the reputation of Chinese bikes being poor quality disappears. The lower end producers cut their losses and move into other industries leaving the building of motorcycles to a smaller, better qualified group of companies.
As technology improves and bikes become more digitalised we see the introduction of electrichybrids and ethanol internal combustion engines. As the dino-juice becomes more expensive the industry moves to expand into new fuel systems employing engines designed for biofuel and electricity from on-board generators. Cheap metals are a thing of the past; high grade alloys and carbon fibre comprise the bodywork, engines are refined and durable while being low maintenance and stock from the factory the bike comes with world renowned rubber from Continental, Pirelli or Michelin.
30 year from now – 2046
Chinese motorcycles no longer bear a resemblance to the machines of the decades passed and are only distant cousins, as close as a 1948 BSA Bantam is to a 2008 Honda CG. Technological improvements in suspension, fuel systems, gearboxes, aerodynamics and electrical systems have made the bike into the most efficient vehicle next to a bicycle. It is now considered a tough choice to pick between a Japanese, European and Chinese motorcycle. Autonomous pilot systems have made driving a car as boring as taking a flight and motorcycles have become the go-to for those with a passion for tearing up the black top. Personal rockets ships of the modern age, perfectly balanced after decades of fine tuning and refinement. Companies merge internationally, sharing concepts and developments resulting in pristine products. Safety features and protective gear have come on leaps and bounds to make rider fatalities from traffic accidents a rare thing indeed.
Riding popularity increases across economic classes and motorcycles become as numerous as cars throughout the world. Thanks to the improvements in safety tech the motorcycle is now the safest way to travel and is still more reliable than the car. The leaders of the world declare that motorcycles are the saviour of humanity and throw down their arms, ending all wars and bringing global peace to mankind for the first time in millennia.
Ok, so maybe the last bit was a tad too optimistic but world peace by way of motorcycles would be the coolest part of history ever written. Fantasy or not, the future of the Chinese motorcycle industry is awaited with high expectations and even higher hopes.

Exclusive written for Monthly AutoMark Magazine

By David McMullan CEO, C2W Media and Consulting – China

How to Import Car from Japan to Pakistan?

Imported cars have gained much support and attention from Pakistani auto consumers in last year or so. The imports are all time high. And considering the low fuel costs now a days, the trend has gotten quite common to go through a car import process. You can either buy one from car import dealers in the open market, or you can use PakWheels Car Import section to find a suitable ride. You can get a pretty accurate idea about imported cars in Pakistan on PakWheels.com and then navigate your way through there.

How can you Import Yourself?

But if you want to import a car from Japan to Pakistan yourself on your own, you can do that. But you need to be cautious. There are a lot of hoaxers, and you need to carefully. But if you have decided to do so, first you need to know the basics of the car import business. There are auction houses in japan that sell cars. You log into their database through their websites and bid on the vehicle you desire. Find one of those car import portals and sign up with your details.

What is Auction Sheet?

From there, you will find details of all the cars that are available for the auction. Their makes, models, year and other details about their specs, etc. You then will select one of the cars, the make, and model that you can see on the site, and when going in details, you will find its auction sheet as well. Auction sheet is your best tool in car import business to save yourself from buying a wrong vehicle. You will see details of time and date of the auction, the minimum bid, etc. And when you are final about the car, you need to deposit around USD 1000 in auction company’s account. It’s sort of an initial payment to make sure you are serious buyer. One you have made the transaction, you can now bid on the cars.

Get your Vehicle through Auction

After you have successfully bought the car, the company sends original documents via courier before the shipment of the vehicle. Those documents are original Invoice, original Export certificate in Japanese, translated export certificate in English, and two copies of original B/L (bill of lading). And you will be able to get your car from Karachi Port Trust in approximately 15 days. Now hire a customs agent and get your vehicle.

Avoid Scammers!

The imported car buying can get confusing especially if you end at the doors of shady vehicle importers. They will try their best to sell you any cheap defective imported cars that they bought of imported for cheap to make maximum profit. Since car import from Japan is on the rise nowadays, it can get tricky to find a trustworthy car import business. And also, custom duty on cars can get confusing for a new buyer.

There are many imported cars in Pakistan on PakWheels.com as well. You can get PakWheels CarSure Certification program to help you find a decent imported car in Pakistan. You might be spending money on otherwise what is known as a lemon. Dealing in car import and imported cars on your own can be a risky business. You need a trusted partner to make sure you don’t waste your investment.

Conclusions

Another issue is the discrepancies in prices of imported cars in Pakistan. There are so many variants and trims of cars, and there are so many variables involved, like the import grade of the car, the model and year of the car, custom duty on imported cars, and its overall condition, etc. that it can be hard to have a decent idea of imported car prices in Pakistan. You might think you are buying a car at a reasonable price, but the car itself might not be worth half that money.

Automobile industry is one of main economic pillar of any country. It contributes average 5 to 8 % in GDP and approx. 10 to 18% in manufacturing sector depends on the country. The reason behind the significant contributions that there are lots of industries associated with it, e.g. Steel, Rubber, Plastic, Aluminum, Chemical, Paints, Carpets, Glass, Fuel etc., auto Industry can absorb massive amount of labor in OEM, tier one and tier two vendors. Repair, Re sales, and Spare part markets are supplement to this industry.
History of automobile starts with “Model T” of Ford, which was the first car of world, produced in 1908. One can find many events back through the 18th century about the evolution of cars and its components but those entire projects were proto type. Model T was labeled as first car because it had been produced in mass production with affordable price with price tag of$850 in 1909 to $300 in 1925; actually Henry ford was passing its saving to the end customers. US have rich history of automobile industry, big three Ford, General Motors and Chrysler belonged to United States. Before Great Depression 1929, there were 32 million cars running on the road globally and US made 90% of them. After World War IIUS share reduced to 75 % and then in 1992 Japan took the lead and then China in 2008.
Fortunately history of Pakistan auto industry starts with independence of the country when in 1949General Motors Sales and Distribution Co. introduced Vauxhall Bedford Trucks in Pakistan and built assembly plant in Karachi. It was the first assembly plant of the country in a very nascent stage. General Motors brought their UK plant hangars for assembling SKD (Semi Knocked Down) and installed at the place where Awami motors was situated later in Dockyard, West Wharf, production was started but after some years stopped for unknown reason. After rapid growth in demand of cars which heralded the good potential in future demands, other three giants of US Ford, Chrysler and American Motors Corporation AMC rushed to enter into Pakistan in early 50’s so they quested for local company to grant them right as a franchisee.
In 1955 Ford came into Pakistan through Ali Automobiles and built various Ford Cars e.g Ford Cortina (which was claimed to be Pakistan’s first car by some auto industry expert), Ford Perfect, Ford Pickup, Ford Angela, Ford Combi etc. Syed Wajid Ali, who was commissioned officer of Indian Army before partition, a philanthropist and a chairman of Packages, Wazir Ali Industries, and many industries in Pakistan, started Ali Automobiles, he also incorporated Wazir Ali Engineering in 1963, for engineering and heavy Industries. Wazir Ali Engineering made assembly tools, night vision devices and hollow plate bridges for army and later introduced Lambretta Scooter, in 1962, this Italian brand motorcycle produced through progressive manufacturing. Syed Wajid Ali died in 2008 at Lahore after protracted illness.
Chrysler entered into Pakistan through Haroon Industries which introduced Dodge Dart cars in 1956. Plant was located where Hino Pak is situated in Karachi. Haroon Industries was also importing SKODA (Czech Republic brand) cars in 60’s, then the CEO Khawaja Rehman decided to build it locally in progressive manufacturing. In 1968 Haroon Industries started venture named SKOPAK and initiated development in 1969 and launched the car in 1970. Haroorn Industries was importing chassis from SKODA and making fiber glass body panels in house. The whole body was exclusively made in Pakistan, so the Haroon Industries was the pioneer of fiber glass body in Pakistan. This project ran for one year only and ended in 1971 due to nationalization.

In 1962 Kandawalla Industries introduce CJ 5, 6 and 7 Jeeps of American Motors Corporation. It is civilian version of Willey’s military Jeep, CJ is “Civilian Jeep”, Nishan Jeep, copied version of CJ-5, was said to be the first car of Pakistan made through progressive engineering in 1970 at Kandawalla Motors, plant located at SITE area Karachi.Eighty Jeeps were successfully been produced and the project was still in trial run when nationalization put an end to it in 1972. Nishan Jeep was built for Pak Army and govt. did all financing because Kandawallas had very good relations with govt. Matchless Engineering took the pride to manufacture first 4 cylinder petrol engine for CJ-5 Nishan Jeep. Govt. conferred Tamgha-e-Khidmat and Nishan-e-Pakistan to Mian Sharif Ahmed, Chairman of Matchless Engineering.
There was no substantial industrialization in early 50’s, but in the era of Ayub Khan from 1958 to 1969, known as the ‘Decade of Development’, all industries was started to flourish, Tourism, Civil Aviation, Engineering, Units, Exports etc. Unfortunately this economic and industrial growth belonged to force modernization under undemocratic system.
Previously all plants were operating in SKD (semi knocked down) operations means they were only allowed to import sub-assemblies and assemble vehicles in Pakistan, in contrast to progressive manufacturing which required the development of parts locally. In 1963 when Pakistan automobile industries were growing continuously, Lt. Gen. Habibullah Khan Khattak, father in law of Ayub Khan son,GahurAyub, acquired facilities from General Motors during Ayub Khan tenure.He named it Ghandhara Industries Limited, which became the first company of the Pakistan that was granted to make vehicle by progressive manufacturing in 1963. Plant was situated in Karachi, so that adds one more credit to the metropolitan glory, later buses and cars started progressively in this plant.
We can classify auto industry before nationalization in two phases.
• Pre Nationalization with SKD Operation ( 1949-1962)
• Pre Nationalization with Progressive Manufacturing (1963-1972)
Bedford was a huge success in trucks sector, with the sales volume was hovering around 3000 units per annum. By foreseeing that success Habibullah Khattak also incorporated Ghandhara Diesel Limited to manufacture diesel engines in-house for Bedford Truck in 1970 at Hub Chauki, which was later nationalized in 1972 and named Bela Engineers Limited. Bela Engineers was first company to manufacture engines for in Pakistan.
Auto industries got huge support when Allwin Engineering and General Tyres incorporated. Allwin Engineering, which had expertise in specialized and precision parts, incorporated in 1963, as private limited company, which was owned by Shirazi Group. General tyres was started operation in 1964, initially it was an American company, General Tire International Corp. GTIC, investment which was later sold to Bibojee Group in 1977 and now GTIC is only giving technical assistance.
Battala Engineering Company BECO Lahore, founded by Ch. M. Latif, a Mechanical Engineer graduated from Maclagen Engineering College now UET (University of Engineering and Technology Lahore), in 1932. Pakistan was the first Islamic country to build its own prototype diesel engine at BECO in early 60’s before nationalization. It was the tremendous achievement by any Pakistani company, but before engine going for mass production nationalization ruined its fortune, started with changeof its name from BECO to PECO Pakistan Engineering Company. So having huge potential for growth it collapsed and ended in making of bicycle instead of diesel engine.
In 1964, Raja Motors, Honda Motor Cycles and Rana Tractors (Millat Tractor now) was incorporated. Rickshaw and Vespa of Italian brand was introduced by Khawaja Auto Cars.An employee of Khawaja Auto Car, Raja Abdul Rehman, made his own company named Raja Motors. Khawaja Yousuf, founder of Khawaja Auto Car was not well educated businessman, but had very strong relations in Italy, Italians also trusted on him that’s why Italians introduced many products in Pakistan through Khawaja Auto Cars. Monnoo Motors introduced Toyota Corona in 1967 but they only did import CBUs (completely built unit), price tag of Toyota Corona was about Rs. 36,000. Monnoo had a plan to build their plant on Hawksbay, Karachi for Toyota Corona production, they even purchased the land there but unfortunately project fell in vain due to nationalization.
Independence to Pre Nationalization era is covered in this article. Events of nationalization; post nationalizationera; its good and bad impact on the local industry; truth about different claims of first carand factors that cause debacle of some auto companies will be covered in next articles.
Author: M. ShujaulHaq

Published in Monthly AutoMark Magazine’s March-2016 printed edition

Time will tell how the new Chinese players will grab the share from the already existing players in light and heavy commercial trucks but one

thing is certain the new players will definitely try to roll out latest engine technology as per European standards.

Economic conditions and import/export trade are considered as the life line for the production of light and heavy trucks as import and export

trade is the barometer of country’s economy

The heavy commercial vehicle scenario in Pakistan has surely witnessed drastic changes in the last few years. As many Chinese and foreign brands have tested their luck in the hot-blooded Pakistani market.

The new players are already dominated by Hinopak Motors, Ghandara Nissan, Ghandara Industries and Master Motors which cumulatively enjoy sizable market share. It can be said that the new players have proven themselves to enjoy the profit fairly.The aim to cut a slice from the old players’ share seems a gigantic task but the price difference may lure the price conscious people associated with goods’ carrier business.

After experiencing the Japanese joint venture, a number of seasoned and organized players in the auto assembling business are now with ink agreements Dysin working with leading Chinese truck makers (Sinotruk truck) and Ghandara Industries is working with Dongfeng trucks .Volvo also plans to unveil high quality trucks in Pakistan. One of the leading Japanese companies along with one Swedish heavy vehicle player are collaborating with Chinese DongFeng which is the world’s largest producer of heavy duty trucks. These workings together direct us to a pretty well road which surely is bright for Pakistan.

The expansion of the premises of MAN Diesel and Turbo Pakistan is owing to the increase of capacities to realize the sizeable maintenance contracts the company has undertaken. Furthermore, the premises are extended and customized in such way that MAN Truck and Bus can start its business in Pakistan and develop its sales and after sales services for the region, showcasing trucks, buses and high speed engines in Lahore.

In December 2015, Karakoram Motors signed a contract assembly agreement with M/s Dysin Automobiles Limited for the assembly of their 220 and 290 hp Prime Movers SINO TRUCKS of China.

All assembling arrangements are now completed and commercial production of these trucks will start in the first week of May  2016.

The plant initially assembled 300 units of Euro compliant trucks and prime movers of various categories and was scalable for production output as per market demand. The Joint Venture Agreement was signed by Quarter Master General which is also Officer Incharge NLC Lieutenant General Sajjad Ghani, Chairman HIT Lieutenant General Syed WajidHussain and Senior Vice President NORINCO Wang Lee, said an ISPR press release.

Some of the existing companies in Pakistan are Hinopak, Ghandara, Al-Haj Faw, Afzal Motors (Jac,King & Long van), PM Autos (Faw) Power brand light vehicle etc. Master Motors is a truck manufacturer based in Port Qasim, Karachi as a part of the Master Group of Industries.

Although the present transport system is not up to standards but it can be safely said that it has considerably improved compared to previous years. It is true that economy cannot grow without appropriate modernization of trucking sector. Worthy exports and imports travel on such low standards vehicles turning out to be a major risk.

Time will tell how the new Chinese players will grab the share from the already existing players in light and heavy commercial trucks but one thing is certain the new players will definitely try to roll out latest engine technology as per European standards.

Economic conditions and import/export trade are considered as the life line for the production of light and heavy trucks as import and export trade is the barometer of country’s economy.

The existing players had a nail biting experience from 2009-2010 onwards till 2012-2013. As per figures of Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA), the overall sales of trucks plunged to 1,948 units in 2012-2013 from 2,394 units in 2011-2012, 2,942 units in 2010-2011 and 3,620 units in 2009-2010.

High truck prices of existing players can be blamed for low sales from 2009-2010 to 2012-2013 besides investors’ shift towards used trucks and Chinese light commercial vehicles.  Even investors in goods carrier businesses also lifted only 10,734 units of Suzuki Ravi in 2012-2013 as compared to 17,015 units in 2011-2012. Hyundai Shehzore (Korean made) remained out of production from 2011-2012 to 2012-2013.

However, the PAMA figures for July-October 2013-2014 proved a bit relief for the truck makers as Hino sales stood at 263 units followed by Nissan’s 95 units, Master’s 125 units and Isuzu’s 90 units as compared to 264 units of Hino, 61 units of Nissan, 99 units of Master and 98 units of Isuzu in July-October 2012-2013.

In light commercial segment, Suzuki Ravi’s sales rose to 3,692 units in July-October 2013-2014 as compared to 3,030 in same period last fiscal year. Buyers of Hyundai Shehzorereceiveda good news with start of its production from September 2013 with 150 units, swelling to 300 units in October 2013 and still increasing till date.

One of the leading local truck manufacturers was not satisfied as cheaper Chinese trucks wereposing serious challenge to costly and big truck assemblers while arrival of used trucks continued to haunt the local industry.

One reason was Pak Rupee’s devaluation against major currencies which pushed up the cost of import of parts and accessories thus pushing up cost of production in the last five years especially from July 2013 onwards when one Dollar was equal to Rs 98.50. The peak was when one Dollar was 108. Although the cost is still up as the current Dollar to PKR is 104.8 which still is a major reason for costs going up and competition to weaken.

Chinese truck and commercial vehicle assemblers can sustain the currency parity impact due to cheap parts’ quality and low price of Chinese parts and accessories. Not only the dollar rate but the rising oil prices have had a countable impact on the demand and production.

As the Japanese assemblers are worried over the current heavy vehicle situation, the existing Chinese and Korean investors and upcoming new players must also be alarmed. The import policy permits import of used dump trucks, spraying lorries, waste disposal trucks and prime movers etc which find their way into the market for use as normal trucks. Others avenues also exist for import of used vehicles  besides the baggage scheme for overseas Pakistanis which continue to be relaxed for heavy commercial vehicles with the age limit is five years and depreciation limit is two per cent.

Smuggled and under invoiced heavy vehicles are also available in the market. With the above negative conditions, the government has imposed sales tax at the standard rate on locally produced heavy vehicles which has further hit the market.

The assemblers under PAMA feel that the revival of heavy vehicle sector is not possible unless measures are taken to curb the import of used vehicles for which age limit of used trucks being imported under baggage schemes are brought down to three from five years besides cut in depreciation limit to one from two per cent. PAMA feels that there is a need to comprehensively review all the schemes and appropriately pruning the same in the light of their misuse.

The China Pak Economic corridor is going to enhance the heavy duty truck and busses sale. This is because the latest highway is going increase the demand for travelling and people would want to travel in much more luxury and a comfortable manner. It is a great opportunity for Pakistan to attain utmost benefit out of CPEC. The auto industry of Pakistan is surely going to increase if educated steps are taking by related authorities and stake holders. The latest truck launched by Hinopak named Kazay is a new step taken towards the evolution of heavy duty vehicles in Pakistan. It has been noted that the latest technology sales have increased and travelling has become much easier. Not only this heavy duty trucks will be needed to transport goods and services between the two country therefore latest technology trucks will be needed. PAMA has to create favorable policies so that the industry can boom and new investors can enter. With the entry of new manufacturers and assemblers the quality is going to increase and the prices are going to fall because of competition. The Chinese manufacturers which entered the industry have also given a tough time to the local ones which further has moved the auto sector one step ahead. Government should look up into this matter by giving further subsidies to local manufacturers so that the Pakistani heavy duty truck industry also sustains and can compete in the international market.

This exclusive article on commercial vehicles, published in Monthly AutoMark Magazine’s March-2016 edition.

#automotive #automark #magazine #march2016

Every leap year we welcome February 29 into our calendar – and with good reason. The humble leap day comes and goes every four years without much fuss – but it saves us a lot of trouble and is the one day women are encouraged to propose to their man.

Professor of Applied Physics at the University of Liverpool Ken Durose told the ECHO: “Leap years are a way to avoid a good deal of confusion – and some inconvenient party times.

“Without leap year we would only celebrate New Year on the stroke of midnight once every four years. The next year we’d have to celebrate at 6am, and after that at midday then the year after at tea time.

“I’ve spoken to some of the people in the lab and they weren’t too keen on having a 6am New Year ’s Eve, you’d run out of steam by then.”

We need an extra day every fourth February because a solar year is 365.25 days – not 365, so an extra day is added to keep the calendar and solar years in sync.

Without February 29 every four years the seasons would, in time, fall out of sync with the calendar.

Dr Steve Barrett from the Department of Physics at the University of Liverpool said: “If we adopt a calendar which is always exactly 365 days long then over a long period of time the calendar will slowly slip out of step with the Earth moving around the Sun. And so the seasons will occur at different times of the calendar year.

“After 100 years the seasons will have shifted by 25 days and after 400 years the shift will have amounted to 100 days. The middle of winter would then be in April and the middle of summer in October.

“To stop this happening we add a leap day into February in every fourth year. This year is exactly divisible by four and so 2016 is a leap year. This keeps the calendar in step with Earth’s motion and so the seasons come and go at the same time every year.” – Originally published on liverpoolecho.co.uk