Cars That Look and Listen to Find Themselves a Parking Spot

Automotive Articles

Murtaza Hanif

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Nov 19, 2014

Cars That Look and Listen to Find Themselves a Parking Spot

Sharp eyesight can’t reliably keep you vertical if you have lost your sense of balance, which shows just how important it is to have several different senses at your disposal.

That’s the idea behind a system recently proposed by two Korean engineers to make a car better at finding itself a parking spot. Rather than depend on ultrasound sensors mounted on the grille, as some parking programs do, or on cameras mounted on all sides, the researchers fuse the two kinds of sensor. Three, if you count data from the odometer, which measures the movement of the car.

The auto industry is working on ways to automate the entire parking process, not just the last bit. And Audi, Volvo and Nissan have all shown off parking-space finders that perform well in controlled circumstances, say by linking to a parking lot’s WiFi system. But to work alone in an uncooperative world, cars will have to wring more data from their existing sensors.

Jae Kyu Suhr, an IEEE member, and Ho Gi Jung, a senior member, recently laid out a way to do that. The researchers are affiliated with Hanyang University, in Seoul; their work was supported by the Hyundai Motor Company.

Sensor fusion is tricky because the various sensors look at an object from different angles. The researchers solve the problem with a lot of math and some plain old ingenuity.

First, the car moves past a parking area, scanning for the marked edges of parking slots and for obstacles (such as a parked vehicle). The several cameras and the two ultrasound sensors of course provide different vantage points—what is visible to one sensor may be obscure to another.

At a given point, called a frame, the car processes all the information available to classify the parking area according to its structure—an array of rectangles laid out orthogonally, or on a bias, or in a staggered fashion, and so on. Now that the car knows what it’s dealing with, it knows what to look for: say, for the characteristic edges of a staggered rectangular parking spot.

By breaking down the job in this hierarchical fashion, the researchers say, their system can keep the computational time to just 32 milliseconds, compared with 82 ms for a vision-only system. “These results reveal that the proposed system can surely operate in real time,” they write.

Next, the car moves on to the next vantage point, giving each sensor system the chance to get a better view, at least of some features. Because the odometer tracks the car’s position, the system can figure out the new angle of observation and use it to update its earlier estimate. Besides improving accuracy, this continuous updating helps the system handle roads that aren’t perfectly flat.

Finally, the system offers a selection of possible spots to the driver, who selects one by punching a touchscreen. From this point, the system works like existing car-parking programs.

There are a few drawbacks. The system can’t work as billed at night or in dimly lit, reverberating underground parking lots. To overcome that problem the researchers are developing new algorithms and working with specialized equipment, such as cameras with greater range. Rather than try to make one size fit, all, they’d have independent programs to work in the light of day, at night, and in closed spaces.

Autonomous Emergency Braking

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Murtaza Hanif

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Nov 19, 2014

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Humans are still a factor in the adaptation of automatic braking

The remarkable thing about letting a car do the braking for you is not that the car stops. It’s how late the car hits the brakes. It’s almost as if a teenager were testing his or her reflexes. Those of us raised on automatic transmissions and cruise control may expect cars to take flighty human drivers out of the loop rather quickly. But if my ride in a test vehicle at the 2013 Frankfurt Motor Show is any indicator, carmakers are taking their time taking over. Even the most imperturbable driving instructor might get jumpy using today’s autonomous emergency braking (AEB), also called advanced emergency braking systems.

AEB isn’t even a teenager: Mercedes-Benz introduced an early version with its 2005 S-Class. That system used radar to detect obstacles, warned drivers, and primed brakes so that they would be more effective when the driver finally used them. Yet in an indoor test in simulated foggy conditions, the car’s radar failed to activate the system. A journalist crashed one into another Mercedes-Benz during a televised demonstration. Company engineers later decided that the garage’s steel interior had confused the radar. But the technology is maturing, and the European New Car Assessment Programme (Euro NCAP), a public-private car-testing body and the counterpart to the U.S. NCAP, will require AEB to obtain its highest safety rating next year

Now the state of the art is to use more than one type of sensor to cross-check for obstacles, carmakers say. Some complement radar systems with optical cameras. Today’s S-Class has short-range and long-range radar, optical cameras, and ultrasonic detectors for the closest obstacles. Optical cameras can be fooled by sunlight, wet roads, and night, of course, and ultrasonic sensors work only at the shortest ranges and lowest speeds. Certain research vehicles also include lidar, a radarlike system that uses light rather than radio waves. As the instruments grow smaller and cheaper, carmakers may include lidar in production cars as well.

Yet carmakers still hesitate to override a driver’s instincts. The German auto club ADAC reported in a test [pdf] that it deducted points from a BMW 5 Series for initiating only partial braking after warning the driver. But such a limited action may please self-confident drivers. Harald Barth, a product marketing manager at car supplier Valeo, says that one reason carmakers have kept the brakes on autonomous driving is that they want to win the trust of drivers. “We need not just to offer good systems but also to educate the end user. We are going step by step,” he says.

That will also give engineers more time to figure out how humans react to having control taken away from them. Last year, a pair of studies applied analyses called system-of-systems and operator sequence diagrams to AEB scenarios. They both found that when autonomous systems attempt to take over from human drivers, humans do not always respond well. Or sometimes drivers respond too well and do not react in time to take over again when the autonomous systems attempt to return control to them. The latter study sounded a grim note: “There are no formal methods for testing the performance of AEBs from either a technical or human factors point of view. The effectiveness of AEBs will, however, become increasingly clear in the coming years through fatality and injury statistics,” its authors wrote.

Going slow will also give Euro NCAP and other testing bodies more time to improve their testing capacity. Now Euro NCAP uses a small trailer as the crash target, allowing only simulated rear-end collisions, but it says it will develop targets simulating pedestrians, among other improvements [pdf]. For pedestrians, if not anxious driving instructors, that should be a relief.

via spectrum.ieee

NED University of Engineering plans to open campus in Dubai

Automotive Articles

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Nov 17, 2014

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NED University of Engineering plans to open campus in Dubai

DUBAI:One of Pakistan’s top engineering universities NED University has launched a Dh110 million plan to open a campus in Dubai next year.

Established in 1922, NED University – which takes the initials of its founder, philanthropist Nadirshaw Eduljee Dinshaw – is one of the oldest higher education institutions in Pakistan.

But Muhammad Afzal Haque, the vice chancellor, said before the university can begin its UAE project, it needs financial support.

“NED University would like to establish a campus in Dubai along with other internationally renowned universities. We feel obliged to serve the Pakistani expatriate community living in the Middle East, as well as local students, at an affordable cost,” he said.

“I am expecting that the Pakistani mission in the UAE will help us lobby with our government to fund the project and also request the UAE Government to support our project,” he said, adding that a good-quality campus required at least Dh110 million to start operations.

Until it is built, Dr Afzal said NED University in Pakistan reserved places for students from overseas.

“For the last two years we have been informing Pakistani missions in the Middle East about the self-finance scheme.

“The prospective candidates can apply for the sponsor seats directly or through the higher education commission,” he said.

The Pakistani expatriate community welcomed the news that NED University was preparing to open here.

“We certainly need Pakistani universities in Dubai,” said Dr Faisel Ikram, a consultant in laparoscopic and gastrointestinal surgery, who has a 15-year-old son.

“Hopefully they will cater to the demands of Pakistani students who are born and raised in the UAE, as it is very difficult for them to live in Pakistan for higher studies.

“Also, they cannot afford to go to western countries for a university degree.”

Ehtisham Uddin Iftekhar graduated from NED University in 1990 and now works as a senior engineer for the Abu Dhabi Water and Electricity Authority.

He said that it would be a blessing for expatriates if the quality of education he received at the university was available in Dubai.

“Pakistani families who have lived here for quite a long time are uncomfortable when their children go to Pakistan for higher education. These kids are not familiar with the living conditions of Pakistan and the security situation back home always makes parents apprehensive,” he said.

Mr Iftekhar’s daughter, Hurma Ehtisham, 16, also wants to take an engineering course and NED Dubai Campus will opened up that possibility.

Dr Jawaid Laghari is the former director of Shaheed Zulfikar Ali Bhutto Institute of Science and Technology university in Dubai, the only Pakistani university in the country.

He said that there was definitely a need for a good engineering school in the UAE.

“NED will be successful and will be able to compete with other schools, but only if they recruit a quality faculty and invest in state-of-the-art laboratory equipment,” he said.

“If the fees are affordable, to cater to the lower middle class, then it will be beneficial to the Pakistani community,” said Dr Laghari, who was also the chairman of the higher education commission of Pakistan.

If it is built, NED University will be the second Pakistani university, and the first engineering university, to be located in the UAE.

courtesy via sphinx

Pak Suzuki launches new model GD-110s motorcycle

Muhammed Hanif Memon

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Nov 15, 2014

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Pak Suzuki launches new model GD-110s motorcycle

Pak Suzuki launches new model of GD-100s motorcycle last night in Karachi at local hotel.

The launch ceremony was attended by dozens of company dealers, who had been informed that Pak Suzuki is working on higher engine motorcycles and may launch more models soon.

Pak Suzuki remains the dominant player in Pakistan’s four-wheelers market, though, with over 60% of the market. However, its share in the motorcycles market is just less than 2%.

Within the span of time that has passed since the launch of GD-110 the product has gained immense respect from the competitors and has received overwhelming response from the consumer market with its fair share of critics. This has to bekept under consideration that PSMCL management analyzed the critics and has come up with an improved version of the appreciated model GD-110 and named it GD-110S where “S” represents the “Sports” variant.

A few of concerns from the consumers have been noticed, such as the inevitable concern of the motorbike being overpriced is being heard off. The price for this motorbike has been announced as 122,000PKR which is considerably high when we consider that a Chinese 70cc is available at half the price, but considering certain facts & figures which include the technical supremacy of performance, economy & reliability over its counterparts & the exchange rates of Pakistani currency with that of other countries in which this bike has been announced including Philippines where the motorbike is available for 47000 peso which equates to 116,000 pkr, the motorbike is priced fairly. Perhaps those who consider benefiting from low running & maintenance costs would surely gain from the product in the longer run. Besides to address the price concern, there are reports, that Pak Suzuki will be offering attractive installment package for motorcycle purchase.

All in all GD110S is a globally recognized model introduced in Pakistan for the benefit of local sector. The consumer market has been looking dearly for a change in the two wheeler technology & Pak Suzuki has brought a fresh breeze of modern technology in this sector for the consumer market to appreciate & adapt. It’s in our hands to appreciate & adapt the technology of the future or cling on to the medieval technology & obsolete designs

E-Bike Launches in Pakistan, Hopes to Make Low Cost Travel a Reality

Muhammed Hanif Memon

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Nov 13, 2014

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E-Bike Launches in Pakistan, Hopes to Make Low Cost Travel a Reality

If you are like any average Pakistani employee, a major portion of your salary goes into transport costs. CNG isn’t regularly available and even when it is; there are huge queues which have become a part of the scenery it seems. Petrol prices have been all over the place as well and as a result, we often see up to 30% of our salaries consumed by our cars and bikes.

The solution? Get rid of fuel entirely. Meet the latest addition to the Pakistani roads that aims to do exactly that, the E-Bike.

E-Bike costs 20 PKR per charge, travels up to 100km and can reach speeds of 60 km/h

The E-Bike, which was launched yesterday in Karachi, uses an electric engine that runs fully on rechargeable batteries. The 800 watts motor can help the bike reach speeds in the range of 45-60 km/h. Charging the E-Bike requires 6-8 hours and you can travel up to 80-100km before running out of juice. The best part? A single charge costs only 20 PKR.

If you want a direct comparison, if your monthly expenditure on a regular motorcycle is 3000 PKR, the E-Bike can reduce that to 300 PKR. Another great thing is that since it is less than 50cc, the E-Bike doesn’t require any registration or license to operate. Other features include doorstep after sales service, alarm and automatic locking system, keyless start, disc brakes and a digital meter.

The E-Bike comes in four options, from 82,900 PKR to 95,900 PKR.

	T-60	T-70	T-75	T-80 Sport
Price	82,900 PKR	88,900 PKR	89,900 PKR	95,900 PKR
Battery	60V20AH	72V20AH	72V20AH	60V20AH
Motor power	800W	800W	800W	800W
Battery warranty	1 year	1 year	1 year	1 year
Motor warranty	2 years	2 years	2 years	2 years
Colors	Yellow, Red, Blue	Yellow, Red, Blue	Red, Blue, Black, Grey	Yellow, Red, Blue

One question for all electric vehicles is that of durability. Electric motors have a limited life span and so does the E-Bike. It can be charged around 500 times before needing a change which amounts to roughly 50,000 km. A replacement battery costs 12,000 PKR. Even factoring in the costs of a battery replacement, the E-Bike is cheaper in the long run since you would save over 80,000 PKR in fuel costs.

E-Bike can travel up to 50,000km before needing a battery change.

Athar Ahmed Khan, who is the owner of TAZ trading which imports the E-Bikes, says his aim is to replace the 70cc motorcycles in the market. If the product is met with a successful reception, Khan would consider building assembly and manufacturing plants in Pakistan that could create a lot of jobs and help revive our stagnating automotive industry.

We personally think that the E-Bike is a great idea. India and China have seen the launch of cheap smart-cars and similar electric bikes in response to the need for low cost transport for a common man. The E-Bike targets the same demographic. It provides clear cut advantages and savings that anyone can appreciate and there is no reason why it can’t take off in Pakistan.

Inauguration of Agriauto Stamping Company at Port Qasim in Karachi

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Muhammed Hanif Memon

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Nov 9, 2014

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Inauguration of Agriauto Stamping Company at Port Qasim in Karachi

The Inauguration ceremony of Agriauto Stamping Company was held on 9th June 2014, at Port Qasim. The ceremony was an impressive gathering of business community from the Auto Industry, which included high officials from OEMs, members of the auto parts makers association, customers, representatives from House of Habib and Agriauto family.

Agriauto Stamping Company, a wholly owned subsidiary of Agriauto Industries Limited, has been established with Technical collaboration of Ogihara Thailand Company, one of the largest makers of dies & sheet metal parts for the automotive industry. This facility will be a benchmark for the auto part makers in Pakistan.

The company has a modern, custom made plant which houses state of the art equipment and facilities. The setting up of the company is a hallmark in the Auto Industry of Pakistan, which would pave the way for die making and developing high tensile sheet metal parts for the auto industry in Pakistan. The Company will provide direct employment to 120 skilled members. Ten of Company’s engineers and technicians have received specialized training in Thailand for three to six months to match the parts quality as of the imports. – Press Release

Please see more pictures at bottom:

Indian Auto sector hopes Narendra Modi-led govt will bring in reforms

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Muhammed Hanif Memon

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Nov 9, 2014

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Indian Auto sector hopes Narendra Modi-led govt will bring in reforms

The beleaguered Indian automobile industry today pinned hopes on the new government, to be led by Narenadra Modi, to push reforms such as GST and policies that boost infrastructure development on the back of a clear mandate in the polls.

The industry also hoped that the new government would keep the excise duty rates at the existing level to help the sector come out from a prolonged demand slump.

“I think at the moment the industry is in such shape that removing that concession (excise duty cut) would be very negative, so I hope that will continue,” Maruti Suzuki India Chairman R C Bhargava said.

He added that Modi now has the mandate to implement whatever he has been promising.

“Creation of jobs, moving manufacturing to a much faster rate of growth, getting good governance in the country, whatever is required to do these would be areas that form priority of the government,” Bhargava said.

General Motors India Vice President P Balendran said the customer sentiment is expected to improve in the medium to long term with a new government at the Center.

“We expect the excise duty cuts to be retained in June’s Budget and interest rates to fall or remain at current levels for any chances of recovery for the automobile sector during second half of the year,” he added.

In the Interim Budget, the government had cut excise duty to 8 per cent from 12 per cent for small cars, scooters, motorcycles and commercial vehicles; 24 per cent from 30 per cent for SUVs; 20 per cent for mid-sized cars from 24 per cent and 24 per cent for large cars from 27 per cent.

The auto sector has been on a prolonged slump. Annual car sales in India declined for the first time in 11 years in 2013, posting a 9.59 per cent dip.

Balendran further said with a new stable government in place, the expectation is for an early implementation of second generation economic reforms like GST and DTC and speeding up of stalled infrastructural projects to revive the economy.

Hero MotoCorp Joint Managing Director Sunil Kant Munjal said streamlined policies that can bolster infrastructure development in India, acting as an engine of growth must be the priority of the new government.

“We expect to witness a more rapid double digit growth in the two-wheeler segment with the new policies and improved buying sentiments of our end customers,” he added.

Expressing similar views, JCB India MD and CEO Vipin Sondhi said that with a stable government at the helm the company hopes “that mechanisms will be put into place to ensure that the top twenty projects of national importance are implemented expeditiously”.

Automotive Component Manufacturers Association (ACMA), the apex body for the Indian auto component industry, said that the new government should work to bring back footfalls to the auto dealerships.

“The recent excise rate cut in the interim budget needs to continue for some time, as also interest rates need to be brought down to make vehicle financing attractive for the consumers,” it added.

CBI & TDAP BRAIN STORM FOR QUANTIUM JUMP IN PAKISTAN EXPORTS

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Muhammed Hanif Memon

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Nov 9, 2014

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CBI & TDAP BRAIN STORM FOR QUANTIUM JUMP IN PAKISTAN EXPORTS

CBI, The Dutch Centre for Promotion of Imports from Developing Countries and the senior management of TDAP got together for a day long retreat at Bhurban for brainstorming about how to improve the delivery processes at TDAP for achieving Pakistan’s target of doubling its exports in the next few years.

The session consisted of Secretary TDAP, Mrs. Rabiya Javeria Agha, stakeholders and senior executives of TDAP. CBI Experts, Zaheeruddin Dar, Fred Janssen and Imtiaz Rastgar moderated the frank and candid session.

The SWOT awareness resulted in highlighting gaps in operation procedures, internal and external training of staff as well as exhibitors, absence of education relating to creation of a cadre seasoned export executive and several guidelines for helping TDAP in meeting its mandated objective of spearheading Pakistan’s exports to the forefront of the global economy.

The getting together of stake holders with the senior and middle cadres of TDAP in a cordial atmosphere, hosted by the CBI, resulted in a free and frank exchange of ideas which led to a better understanding of issues, constraints and some directions on how to over come these, through better coordination and inputs from stake holders.

It was realized that as a facilitator, TDAP’s success depends on the success of the Pakistani exporting community. The challenge is how to expand the exporter base as well as the increase the diversity of Pakistani exports. At the same time, there is a big gap in the curricula being taught in business schools and skill development centers where subjects relating to exporting skills have been totally ignored.

An important issue, which came up, was about the lack of research facilities at TDAP or its affiliated government concerns as well as at the stakeholder BSOs. These and several issues, when addressed, would lead to sustainable growth of Pakistani exports.

All participants thanked the CBI for its role as a specialist agency in promoting exports from Pakistan and looked forward to a continued interaction between TDAP and CBI.

– PRESS RELEASE by Imtiaz Rastgar, CBI representative in Pakistan

Urgent need for small engine power cars in Pakistan

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Muhammed Hanif Memon

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Nov 9, 2014

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Urgent need for small engine power cars in Pakistan

People willing to take a shift from two wheelers to owning of small cars do not have much options in 660-800cc vehicles since Daihatsu Cuore, Suzuki Alto, Hyundai Santro etc had become a history in the manufacturing book of the local auto industry.

Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMCL) had unveiled Wagon R 1,000cc from April 2014 after a gap of almost two years while consumers had still been awaiting any replacement of Cuore for the last two years.

The existence of Hyundai Santro Plus holds no importance as its production remained suspended from 2010-2011 to 2012-2013. Its manufacturer resumed its production with only 210 and 152 units produced and sold in 2013-2014.

In the meantime used car imports mainly small cars proved a bit relief to some extent but after change of age limit to three from five years coupled with cut in depreciation limit the import of used vehicles had plunged sharply, thus closing another option for the buyers of 660-800cc vehicles. Due to change in age limit, low engine power vehicles became unaffordable for many people owing to their high prices.

The Indus Motor Company (IMC) appears so far reluctant in introducing new 800 or 1,000cc vehicle as its management feels that it is unfeasible to roll out low engine power vehicle because of high price factor.

Pak Suzuki gave a substitute of famous Suzuki Alto in shape of Wagon R but it is premature to give any firm opinion about its future survival. Pak Suzuki closed down Suzuki Alto when its sales were thriving. It did not exist from 2012-2013 while in 2011-2012 its sales were hit at 16,288 units from 11,932 in 2010-2011 and 10,794 units in 2009-2010.

Despite high prices and costly maintenance, good sales of cars like Honda Civic and Honda City surprisingly improved earnings of Honda Atlas Cars while IMC’s Toyota Corolla sales continued to remain in red. Even Suzuki Swift after a powerful start faced consumers’ reluctance who preferred used imported vehicles like Toyota Vitz, Toyota Passo, Daihatsu Mira, Nissan AD etc at the price of Suzuki Swift.

From 2011-2012 sales of 4,977 units of Honda Civic, its overall sales jumped to 9,950 units in 2012-2013 and 9,933 units in 2013-2014. City sales swelled to 13,741 units in 2013-2014 from 11,285 units in 2012-2013 and 7,142 units in 2011-2012.

Toyota Corolla remained a big loser with sales falling to 29,087 units in 2013-2014 from 32,608 in 2012-2013 and peak sales of 46,207 units in 2011-2012.

Suzuki Swift achieved highest sales of 7,128 units in 2011-2012 which dropped to 6,096 units in 2012-2013 and to 5,128 units in 2013-2014.

The above figures reveal that only Honda Civic and City remained the highest selling cars besides proving disastrous for struggling Toyota Corolla in terms of its flat sales.

However, the IMC now looks more determined to recover its past glory of highest sales of Toyota Corolla by introducing new models of Corolla with a bang for which it invested $100 million in technology transfer and production facility improvements.

IMC commenced taking customer’s order from July 16 for 1,800cc Corolla Altis Grande, the 11th generation Corolla which has been completely redesigned around the concepts of elegance and class-above prestige.

The vehicles currently available are the Altis Grande CVT at Rs 2,299,000, Altis Grande M/T Rs 2,149,000, Altis 1.8 A/T at Rs 2,149,000 and Altis 1.8 M/T at Rs 2,024,000 (excluding withholding tax and Delivery charges). Lower specifications variants like XLI and Gli will be introduced shortly which may give tough time to Honda cars.

IMC has announced booking for the new model Toyota Corolla on partial payment of Rs 500,000.

High engine power car makers are more hopeful that the sales of such vehicles will remain ahead of low engine power cars in the current year and Corolla is expected to take a big slice from the market share of Honda cars initially.

Sales will depend on the cash crops like wheat, cotton, rice, sugarcane etc as good crops encourage growers to purchase new vehicles. Besides, sales prospects also appear positive in view of rising corporate and MNCs buying coupled with lifting of cars by traders and business community. Government’s buying despite austerity measures may also remain brisk in the current fiscal year.

As long as demand from filthy rich class remains high, the future of costly locally assembled cars is bright but there are limited varieties for the middle income group who want to switch from two to four wheelers.

IMC claims to have got overwhelming response for its costly Altis as buyers rushed to the showrooms to book the car despite subdued demand in Ramazan.

It is to be seen what Honda Atlas does in bringing model change in Civic and City to take an edge in sales over new Toyota Corolla.

Surprisingly, the most popular Suzuki Mehran 800cc sales faced turbulence from 2011-2012 (36,131 units), falling to 32,407 units in 2012-2013 and 29,509 units in 2013-2014. If the Punjab government would have not lifted Mehran under Punjab Taxi Scheme in 2012 then the sales figures would have been more depressing.

Mehran’s high price and obsolete designs compel many people to take the risk of purchasing used 660-800cc vehicles. Pak Suzuki has not changed its design, interior and exterior since 1990 and only head lights and front grill are changed. The company took more than two decades to change to engine from Euro I to Euro II last year. It seems that buyers have now realized that purchasing Mehran is not a good decision when the markets offer five year old car with much additional features, new designs, colors, centre locking, power windows, attractive dash board etc at slightly high price than Mehran.

Nobody knows as to why the government has not checked the assembler of Mehran for rolling out decades old and outdated Mehran for more than 20 years.

The government and the relevant ministry should seriously ask the assembler of Mehran to end its production in Pakistan and introduce new 800cc model either Alto or other vehicle.

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in his speech at 37th exports award of FPCCI on February 08, 2014 and PAPS auto show of PAPAM on March 6, 2014 in Lahore had expressed his wish for a complete Pakistani made car besides doubling exports of Pakistan.

He informed business advisory council, comprising of business and trade representatives, which would meet with government officials at least after every three months, while Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and the relevant minister would also sit along with them and all business related matters would be sorted out, besides taking policy decisions on the spot to improve trade, exports and industry.

However, it seems that nothing serious has been done so far which is evident from the Auto Industry Policy (AIP) which was lying in the cold storage for the last six to seven months. Due to slow pace of work at the ministries and other departments – it is too early to see the implementation of the PM’s dream for a complete Made in Pakistan car. Pak Suzuki, which is the oldest assembler, has failed to materialize this dream as Suzuki Mehran’s localization level has been stagnant at 70 per cent. Its price had been raised frequently due to change in rupee-yen-dollar parity.

In contrast, the closure of Suzuki Alto had shifted 1,000cc buyers towards Suzuki Cultus which is visible from its improvement in sales to 14,682 units in 2013-2014 from 13,308 units in 2012-2013.

After getting support of PAAPAM, Pak Suzuki has been taking up the case for many months urging the government to allow import of six HS Code, being CKD parts only, by removing them from the negative list of items importable from India.

S. No. HS Code Item Description:

1) 8703.2111 – – – -Components for the assembly/ manufacture of vehicles, for engine capacity not exceeding 800cc Car, CKD

2) 8703.2191 – – – -Components for the assembly/ manufacture of vehicles, for engine capacity exceeding 800cc but not exceeding 1000cc Car, CKD

3) 8703.2210 – – – -Components for the assembly/ manufacture of vehicles, for engine capacity exceeding 1000cc but not exceeding 1300cc Car, CKD

4) 8703.2311 – – – -Components for the assembly/ manufacture of vehicles, for engine capacity exceeding 1300cc but not exceeding 1500cc Car, CKD

5) 8703.2194 – – – -Components for the assembly/ manufacture of vehicles, for Mini Van engine capacity exceeding 800cc but not exceeding 1000cc Car, CKD

6) 8704.3110 – – – -Components for the assembly/ manufacture of vehicles, for Pick-up G.V.W not exceeding 5 tons, CKD

PSMCL has informed that they do not desire any change in duty structure for import of CKD Parts from India. Specifically, import duties of CKD Parts and A-max parts under SRO 656 and SRO 693 should remain same whether import is made from Japan or India or any other country.

The benefits highlighted by PSMCL are lower costs of CKD, Introduction of new models, technology transfer / joint ventures in parts manufacturing and possibility for exports.

However, EDB is of the view that the above mentioned proposal is not specific to the vehicles of Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited, as the afore-said HS Codes are universal for all vehicles. Hence removing of these HS Codes would imply opening up imports of aforesaid CKDs of all vehicles from India.

Market sources said that Pak Suzuki has its own agenda regarding trade with India while other manufacturers offer different view. It means that there is no voice of the local car assemblers under the platform of Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA).

Market people feel that there is no harm if the government accepts Pak Suzuki’s proposal as it would at least bring down the prices of cars besides resulting in introduction of new models at par with Maruti Suzuki. Reduction in prices of small engine power will also help a number of people who want to move on four wheelers from two wheelers.

The government, the concerned ministry and Board of Investment should reach those car assemblers either European, Korean or Chinese who are making 660cc cars. At least these cars can run 20-22km per liter of petrol almost equal to CNG consumption in brand new 800cc car.

A number of people are plying used 660cc vehicle and they are happy enough due to its petrol consumption.

However, Pak Suzuki is again lucky after getting orders for supply of 50,000 vehicles to Punjab government.

PSMCL, having over 50 per cent market share, has entered into an agreement with Bank of Punjab for sale of 50,000 units of Suzuki Ravi and Suzuki Bolan Van under “Apna Rozgar Scheme” of Punjab government. These vehicles will be supplied from October 2014 to October 2015 which is bound to improve the company’s earning by 13-20 per cent.

Punjab government has allocated Rs 25 billion for the taxi scheme in its 2014-2015 budget.

PSMCL has capacity to produce 3,000 units per month each of Ravi and Bolan on three shifts. The company sold 14,000 units of Bolan and 11,700 units of Ravi in calendar year 2013 (CY13).

The company also produces 150,000 units (on double shift basis) and sold 76,000 cars/LCVs during CY13 compared to 96,000 cars/LCVs during 2012.

Earlier in 2012, the Punjab government, under its taxi scheme, had given an order of 20,000 cabs to PSMCL. The cabs produced under the scheme had 60pc share (12,000 units) of Suzuki Mehran and 40pc (8,000 units) of Suzuki Bolan.

The government did not have any second option to buy the small cars other than Mehran due to non availability of small cars in Pakistan. It is worth to mentioning here that people who take the opportunity of different government offer schemes also do not have any other option to use/buy locally assembled small car.

This exclusive article published in Monthly AutoMark Magazine’s August-2014 edition, www.automark.pk

Strong sales outlook for auto industry in 2014-2015

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Muhammed Hanif Memon

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Nov 4, 2014

0

Strong sales outlook for auto industry in 2014-2015

The future outlook for local auto sector in terms of sales growth appears quite healthy in view of some decisions taken in federal and provincial budgets 2014-2015.

One of the most encouraging news was the cut in general sales tax (GST) on tractors to 10 per cent from 17 per cent which is bound to boost sales in the current fiscal year as price cut by Rs 30,000 to Rs 90,000 will encourage growers/farmers.

Another booster for the auto industry and its vendors came from the Punjab government which allocated Rs25 billion for the taxi scheme in its 2014-2015 budget which will improve the profitability of Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited having over 50 per cent market share.

“Although details of the short-listed manufacturers are yet to be announced for the scheme, we see high probability of Pak Suzuki’s (PSMC) selection,” JS Research reported

“The leading local car manufacturer will provide vans/pickups which will be used as taxi in rural areas for mass transportation,” Sherman Securities said. If short listed, the yellow cab scheme can lift PSMC’s expected earnings in year 2014 and 2015 by 13 to 20 per cent, as earnings impact is likely to be spread over its Jan-Dec reporting period. On a standalone basis, rough estimates suggest an annualized earnings impact of Rs10 per share for the company.

The contract of taxis may be given to Pak Suzuki Motors (PSMC) and Al-Haj FAW (local assembler in partnership with Chinese FAW group), as both are capable of producing small pickup-vans. Though the Chinese group is capable of producing vehicles like FAW X-PV and FAW-Carrier, which are slightly cheaper than the vehicles produced by PSMC, it is expected that PSMC remains a major beneficiary given its huge capacity and long association with the Punjab government in earlier schemes.

PSMC has capacity to produce 3,000 units per month each of Ravi and Bolan on three shifts. The company sold 14,000 units of Bolan and 11,700 units of Ravi in calendar year 2013 (CY13). The company also produces 150,000 units (on double shift basis) and sold 76,000 cars/LCVs during CY13 compared to 96,000 cars/LCVs during 2012.

“Earlier in 2012, the Punjab government, under its taxi scheme, had given an order of 20,000 cabs to PSMC. The cabs produced under the scheme had 60 per cent share (12,000 units) of Suzuki Mehran and 40 per cent (8,000 units) of Suzuki Bolan. Though this time, the government has quoted over 50,000 cabs to be distributed; however, based on current market prices and same proportion of Mehran and Bolan (60%:40%), it is estimated that 38,000 to 40,000 cabs would be distributed to fully utilize the Rs25 billion allocated for the project”, BMA capital reported. Hopefully all vehicles will be distributed during within three years.

In contrast, the Sindh government had decided to provide 7,000 tractors in the current fiscal year.

Besides, short-term triggers, there are medium-term triggers which may lift overall sales of auto and allied which are,

Huge expansion in road network is anticipated in next few years which is considered to be a backbone of the economy. Pakistan’s road network which carries over 92 per cent of inland freight, any improvement will flourish service sector and eventually generate demand for autos and allied products. The present government in collaboration with Chinese companies, will establish China-Pak Economic Corridor by the end of 2017 with total cost of $5-7bn which will be mainly funded by consortium of banks including China Development Bank, and Export-Import Bank of China. These projects include, Karakorum Highway (Raikot-Islamabad via Mansehra), Karachi- Lahore Motorway (Multan-Sukkur section) and Gawadar East Bay Expressway.

It is generally seen that economic slowdown has spill over impact on auto- industry. Pakistan’s auto-industry which is operating at only 30 per cent of its capacity, is down almost 30 per cent compared to 6 years back.. This is primarily due to the fact that Pakistan’s GDP on an average grew by only 3 per cent in last 6 years compared to previous 6 year average GDP growth of more than 6 per cent. With midterm plan to raise GDP growth to 7 per cent as envisaged by government under 11th Five Year Plan , 2013-18, which signals revival in auto industry as well.

To support rural economy, govt. Is likely to continue taxi scheme (as announced in Budget FY15) and allocate higher farm credit to support agriculture.

Stability in Pak Rupee versus the dollar also anticipated to positively impact auto sector as it may protect their gross margins.

Published in Monthly AutoMark Magazine’s August-2014 edtion. www.automark.pk